Hrvoje Serdarušić
Episode · #199
QUO VADIS HRVATSKA Hrvoje Serdarušić
Guest Hrvoje SerdarušićHosted by Gordana GehlencherMay 3, 2026
Hrvoje Serdarušić
About this episode
What you'll hear in this conversation
Croatia's economic future feels less like a chosen path and more like a series of reactions to external shocks. Hrvoje Serdarušić, a consultant with seventeen years in banking and finance, offers a candid assessment of what lies ahead for the country and its businesses. He argues that while government intentions may be good, the structural weaknesses of the Croatian economy—its reliance on the state and tourism, the undercapitalization of its small and medium enterprises—leave it particularly exposed when global crises hit. This conversation examines the difficult choices facing a nation that has historically depended on "whatever wind comes from outside," and what entrepreneurs should track to navigate the uncertain times ahead.
Insights from the conversation
What to take from this episode
01
The constant media focus on new COVID-19 infection numbers, rather than actual illness, creates a "state of psychosis" that "passivizes and blocks people" from creative problem-solving. An overemphasis on daily statistics can undermine economic optimism and initiative more than the crisis itself.
02
When two-thirds of the economy relies on state activity, as in Croatia, the government's ability to intervene in a crisis is severely limited because its resources were already depleted. An over-extended state in good times leaves an economy vulnerable when it truly needs a safety net.
03
The phrase "spilled milk is spilled milk" underscores that delaying necessary reforms during good times means confronting their absence when a crisis arrives, leaving little room for maneuver. The cost of inaction in prosperity is paid in hardship during downturns.
04
Many Croatian small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are "poorly capitalized and quite indebted," a structural weakness that means a significant portion will not survive economic downturns. The health of an economy is often measured by the resilience of its smallest businesses, not just its largest.
05
Entrepreneurs must always consider macro trends like unemployment, GDP movement, and general optimism because "the trend is your friend." Ignoring the broader economic current is akin to swimming against it, making individual business survival far harder.
06
The global phenomenon of rising savings during a crisis, often seen as counter-intuitive, is simply people "fear[ing] an uncertain future" and deferring non-essential purchases. High savings rates in uncertain times signal fear and deferred consumption, not economic strength.
07
The media's competitive drive for "exclusive" and often cynical news can inadvertently generate a pervasive climate of pessimism that undermines economic recovery. A constant narrative of impending doom can paralyze consumers and businesses, regardless of the underlying reality.
08
Global crises accelerate structural shifts like the move to "shorter supply chains" and "nearshoring" over offshoring, forcing economies to re-evaluate their production models and dependencies. The future of global trade will prioritize resilience and proximity over pure cost efficiency.
09
While retail is shifting to mobile channels, the core problem of a delayed recovery (predicted not until 2022) is not about the sales channel itself, but that people "don't have money or are waiting for better times." Digital transformation doesn't solve a fundamental lack of purchasing power or consumer confidence.
10
Croatia has "always depended on what's happening outside," waiting for "whatever wind comes." This historical dependence means a small economy often lacks the internal resilience to steer its own course during global upheavals.