Nada Barišić
Episode · #420
RITAM POSLA Nada Barišić
Guest Nada BarišićHosted by Lidija KiselyakMay 3, 2026
Nada Barišić
About this episode
What you'll hear in this conversation
The bread on our tables is now a direct barometer of global instability. Wheat prices have nearly doubled in a single year, driven to historical highs by the conflict in Ukraine and its ripple effect across commodity markets. Nada Barišić, director of Žito zajednica, offers an inside view of what this means for Croatia's baking industry and its consumers. She explains why even a strong domestic harvest cannot insulate a small market from global forces, and how these shifts are reshaping everything from investment decisions to household budgets. This conversation will make you rethink the true cost of a daily staple.
Insights from the conversation
What to take from this episode
01
Wheat prices on European exchanges are nearing 400 euros per ton—a nearly 100% increase year-over-year that Nada Barišić says she "does not remember seeing before." The current market isn't just volatile; it's operating at historical price levels, signaling a fundamental shift in commodity pricing driven by global events, not just seasonal supply and demand.
02
Russia and Ukraine combined account for 30% of global grain and oilseed exports. This concentration means a crisis in one region doesn't just impact local prices; it creates a "risk of not knowing" that drives up costs worldwide, regardless of local supply.
03
Croatian households consume almost 62 kilograms of bread per person annually, placing the country among the top ten consumers globally. This high consumption means that even small percentage increases in bread prices have a disproportionately large effect on family budgets, turning a daily staple into a significant financial concern for many.
04
Despite a record harvest of 1.1 million tons of wheat last year, Croatia's domestic production is too small to influence global market prices. Self-sufficiency ensures availability and simpler procurement, but it does not create a price shield. Local abundance mitigates supply risk, not price volatility, in an interconnected global market.
05
The value-added tax on bread was 0% before Croatia joined the EU, then 5%, and has since been reduced again. The guest clarifies that bakers are not "calculating with VAT" as bread has historically had low or zero VAT, indicating the current price hikes are driven by raw material and energy costs, not tax adjustments.
06
Imports of bakery products into Croatia have doubled in less than a decade, reaching 76,000 tons in 2021, while exports remain half that. Even with a strong domestic agricultural base and high consumption, a country can become a net importer of processed food products, highlighting a structural imbalance where local raw materials are exported and finished goods are bought back.
07
The main problem facing Žito zajednica members is the "uncertainty" and "risk of not knowing" future prices, which hinders new investments. When raw material costs can double in a year, the primary business challenge isn't market share, but the fundamental inability to forecast future input costs, making long-term capital planning almost impossible.